Misleading Story

Many people have pointed out that Bitcoin also had to go through a fork in the first few days. This is true, but also misleading. Bitcoin was only forced when the protocol broke, but never because the protocol ran as planned, but the results were not satisfactory.

Another argument often put forward by pro-Fork is that the consensus is reached „by the community“ that „miners can vote“. This is even more subtle and misleading. Miners should not be seen as the final arbitrators on transactions and contracts. By design, they should be the simple slaves of the protocol rules. A stupid lottery which confirms transactions according to deterministic rules.

If they feel they are giving their opinion, we depend on their mood

Everything comes down to a common denominator. If smart contracts are seen as something that must first be interpreted by humans on their „intention“, then there are no automatic and autonomous smart contracts. If you don’t just look at their code, you can undo them retroactively, be it through the community, the courts, or governments.

If that’s the case, it’s hard to see what value smart contracts have, which means it’s generally hard to see.

The only way for Ethereum to recover and grow in the future is to stick to the original principles.

It is a hard decision. And it’s the only decision

It’s your turn!
That was a complex article. How about applying the knowledge itself a little? If one holds out an article so long, one has also earned something to play! In the self-developed web app mentioned above, anyone can calculate price forecasts for different value pairs on Exchanges (even if only a thousand simulations are carried out for the sake of time efficiency).

Under „Exchanges“ you can select the stock exchange from which the price values are to be taken as a basis. Currency 1 is the target currency, currency 2 the source currency. Under „Past Days“ you can see how far into the past the data should go that are used for the drift and volatility calculation. Finally, „simulation duration“ can be used to calculate how many days into the future the price forecast should go.

The tool was written in R and was a small Saturday project. It has a lot of potential for improvement, but the tool is always good for experimenting around. So if you have problems accessing the tool stored under Shinyapps, someone should want to look at the code and improve it or learn some R and Shiny: For all of them the project can also be started offline under Rstudio.

Have fun experimenting!